Thursday, September 3, 2015

After Election Speculations

Andrew Coyne Wrote an interesting article, on which a number of people have commented, about the uncertainly that might prevail even after the election. Coyne, though he has sometimes been a rather mindless supporter of the Conservative government, has become enlightened enough to understand the depth of Harper's duplicity. He has finally realized that this mentally disturbed, power obsessed Prime Minister might do almost anything to hold on to power including trying to form government even after an election loss, refusing to recall parliament, or pressuring the GG into calling another election.

Let me just say that I take Coyne's musings to the next level and suggest that Harper could even attempt to actually nullify the election results themselves, or (more drastically) avoid an election loss by doing something many imagine is inconceivable such as orchestrating a fake "terrorist" attack or finding a way to pull the writ at the last moment. (No one should forget that there is evidence, for example, that the Republicans paid the Iranians to hold the hostages until after the election battle between Carter and Reagan) None of this might be an issue anyway because the depth of Conservative voter fraud might be so extreme that they know that they have the election in the bag anyway, and they are just going through the motions.

Let's assume, however, that by some miracle the Cons do lose the election. Then what? Well let me answer Coyne's last question first. I don't think that either of the other parties would prop up a Conservative government. It seems to me that Trudeau has nearly blown the whole election by supporting the Harper government on one issue (Bill C-51), any wholesale support for Harper would, I believe, destroy the Liberal Party of Canada once and for all. They have surely watched the example of the LibDems in the UK, who four years ago looked like they had a bright future and now look like a defunct political organization. Regardless of Mulcair's dubious political style and questionable past, I don't think he would prop up a Con government either, for the simple reason that such an act would also destroy the future for the NDP and probably bring the Liberals eventually back to power.

However, none of Coyne's other post-election notions seem far-fetched to me. I have certainly been laughably wrong in my political prognostications before. And maybe, just maybe, if Harper ended up with fewer seats than the Libs or the NDP, or both, he would gracefully bow out. It would be drastically out of character for him to do so. However, he may figure that he has done the necessary damage to the Canadian government and figures it will never recover anyway so it doesn't matter if he retires now. On the other hand, I don't actually think Harper is that clear and calculating at this point. I think, as is the case with so many such men, power has driven Harper crazy and he actually sees himself now as the lifetime Prime Minister. I thus suggest that he will do anything, and I really mean anything, to hold on to power.

However, at this point such speculation is little more than entertainment. No amount of anticipation really prepares you for the political chaos of a constitutional crisis. Though, I hope we can say, at the very least, that nothing will entirely surprise us.


Anonymous said...

Won't you be disappointed when Harper doesn't actually orchestrate a terrorist event or cling to power through some sort of tyrannical scheme?

Kirbycairo said...

@ Anonymous. Answer: No. Now do you actually have anything thoughtful or meaningful to offer?

Unknown said...

I agree with you 100% about Harper doing anything to hold onto power.People think there are certain lines he won't cross. There are no lines! For someone who won a majority with such a small percentage of the vote, almost an accidental PM, were having one h*** of a time getting him out. He's like the guest you have who never leaves, eating your food, watching your TV, drinking you booze, giving you advice you haven't asked for and going through your drawers when your out.

the salamander said...

.. as a youth worker.. I was involved wth juveniles. Maximum security, drug offenders addicts and the emotionally disturbed. We were often cautioned that our work was crucial, but in the long term, 'natural consequences' usually prevailed.

We are watching 'natural consequences' unfolding upon Stephen Harper.. or more truthfully, upon his appointees, mentors, MP's, PMO enablers, Party operatives, lawyers.. and even his chosen few such as Ray Novak, Nigel etc.. this the crumbling of Chris Alexander, James Moore, the pitiful bleating of Dean Del Mastro, the agony & ecstacy of The Duffster or Tom Flanagan, Boessenkool, Stockwell Day et al should not surprise..

What will surprise is the worms that turn when even Stephen Harper loses exalted status.. immunity and privilege.. and suddenly the warts are revealed, the worst of Harper is public.. Even now, the only way Harper can campaign is within a bizarre bubble. A drowned toddler on a Turkish beach suddenly becomes dangerous to Harper.. tragedy links with lightning speed to failed process, policy, responsibility. The entire world suddenly gasps on seeing... then hearing that Canada turned that little boy, his brother, mother and father down. The application handed directly to a weak Harper minion MP Minister was fumbled or ignored... Ulp.. oh natural consequences...